Disclaimer:

CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Projected nationwide election results

last updated: February 21, 2019 at 18:35 (Eastern Daylight Time)

national vote projections national seat projections
Liberal  Liberal logo 35.3%

 

156

 

Conservative  Conservative logo 35.6%

 

141

 

New Democrat  New Democrat logo 13.7%

 

26

 

Bloc Québécois  Bloc Québécois logo 4.8%

 

12

 

Green  Green logo 7.3%

 

3

 

Other  Other logo 3.3%

 

0

 

Trend line of all national polls published

last updated: February 21, 2019 at 18:35 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Average regional breakdown of all published polls

last updated: February 21, 2019 at 18:35 (Eastern Daylight Time)

NOTE: for in-depth regional and provincial data, see “Regional projections & riding-level data” section.

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown
last updated: February 21, 2019 at 18:35 (Eastern Daylight Time)

All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

last updated: February 21, 2019 at 18:35 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Polling Firm: Date: Source: Con. NDP Lib. Bloc Green Other Poll weight:  
Leger 2019-02-19 36 12 34 5 8 5 0.384
Ipsos 2019-02-18 36 17 34 6 7 0 0.171
Nanos 2019-02-15 31.8 13.7 37.9 4.1 7.8 4.7 0.126
Campaign 2019-02-11 37 14 32 5 7 5 0.077
Nanos 2019-02-08 34.4 13 37.5 3.8 7.4 3.9 0.003
Nanos 2019-02-01 35.9 13.2 37.6 3.1 7.9 2.3 0.002
Nanos 2019-01-25 36.6 12.8 37.6 3 8.4 1.6 0.002
Innovative 2019-01-24 32 12 38 5 8 5 0.047
Mainstreet 2019-01-18 35.1 11.5 37.2 3.2 7.2 5.8 0.073
Nanos 2019-01-18 36.1 14.2 37.2 3.2 7.4 1.9 0.002
Nanos 2019-01-11 33.9 15.4 38.1 3.3 6.9 2.4 0.002
Nanos 2019-01-04 33.3 16.7 38.7 3 6 2.3 0.002
Nanos 2018-12-28 34.4 16.1 36.8 3.4 6.4 2.9 0.002
Nanos 2018-12-21 34.1 16 35.2 3.8 7 3.9 0.002
Abacus 2018-12-18 34 17 35 4 7 3 0.062
Nanos 2018-12-14 33.9 16.6 36 3.4 6.6 3.5 0.002
Campaign 2018-12-13 35 16 33 4 8 4 0.001
Ipsos 2018-12-12 33 18 38 4 0 7 0.001
Nanos 2018-12-07 34.8 15.8 34.1 3.1 8.2 4 0.001
Nanos 2018-11-30 32.2 14.3 37.9 3 7.6 5 0.001
Forum 2018-11-29 43 11 34 4 6 2 0.035
Nanos 2018-11-23 31.5 14.5 39.6 2.4 6.9 5.1 0.001
Leger 2018-11-20 33 14 39 4 5 5 0.002
Nanos 2018-11-16 28.7 17.2 39.4 2.5 7.3 4.9 0
Abacus 2018-11-13 31 16 38 4 9 2 0
Campaign 2018-11-09 35 17 35 4 7 2 0
Nanos 2018-11-09 27.5 19.8 39.4 2 6.1 5.2 0
Mainstreet 2018-11-07 34.6 10.8 39.3 3.4 6.8 5.1 0
Nanos 2018-11-02 28.1 19.3 39.6 1.9 6.9 4.2 0
Nanos 2018-10-26 28.2 19.3 39.4 2.8 6.5 3.8 0

38 Comments

  1. When are you guys going to put data on the 2018 provincial New Brunswick and Quebec elections

  2. Hi,
    On June 5 your projection for Edmonton Strathcona had the spread between the NDP and CPC at 4 points. The spread jumped to 17 points on the June 9 update. Can you explain the dramatic change?

    Thanks

  3. Is there any chance that this site could be updated on a by-weekly time frame as we get closer to the Federal Election.I would also like to see projections for the New Brunswick and Quebec Elections.This would be greatly appreciated.

    Thank you

  4. I would really enjoy if you could update the site on a monthly basis.I appreciate that you are both probably very busy with other projects but for a political animal like myself I am disappointed that the site was not updated on July 9th as in the past 2 previous months.Having said this I congratulate you for the work you have done to this point and hope you can find the time to improve your site as time passes.

  5. David Herr

    For the July 29, 2018 federal election polling roundup, I don’t know how you arrived at such a huge lead for the Liberals, when none of the recent polls that make up your composite show such a high lead. the poll comprising over 50% of the composite shows a 3 point liberal lead, yet overall you have the lead at 8.7% and 100 seats! Please update with some explanation of how the composite lead dwarfs the lead in any of the component polls. Thanks!

  6. Blair Cusack

    Excellent site!
    A couple of questions if I may:

    1. How do you disaggregate the Poll to apply it at the constituency level? Are you using a historical trend formula there, with a set of co-efficients tied to your aggregated data…or…?

    2. Are the weights you are using for the “Polling Firms” dynamic with respect to their individual rankings (ie out of 14) and/or other traits of those Firms?

    Thanks very much,
    A pleasure to “read”!

  7. You say data have been updated September 3rd, but the last point on your graph says March 9th – are you not showing anything that has happened during the summer?

  8. Your table of all election poll results says it is for the 2015 election – do you mean for the 2019 election? And please include updated data past March 9 2018.

  9. I think your polls are way off. Why don’t you really reflect what is going on in Canada instead of publishing fake news. Ontario just had a landslide conservative majority. The Quebec liberals just got the punt. Alberta Sask and Manitoba are going Blue. JT is planning on forging ahead with his Carbon Tax. Once every home is affected by higher heating, electrical and gasoline prices, people will wake up. For what. Just so there is more revenue in Federal coffers to buy more battle ships, fighter planes, and send our hard earned money to third world countries.
    Where are all these seats coming from for another Liberal majority. I think the Canadian population is finally waking up.

  10. When will this be updated again?

  11. Concerned Canadian Girl

    There is absolutely NO way Liberals are leading.

  12. Concerned Canadian Girl

    Please.. this can’t be real.. this can’t be real..

  13. These polls for the most part have a Liberal bias, don’t believe any of them except Forum. Forum is the only non partisan polling company in the country.

  14. when r you going to update your predictions

  15. Don MacDonell

    Why does Nanos, which has an apparent and consistent pro Liberal bias, always represent more than 50% of your average. There are lots of other polls out there, but you never include them in your averages. That makes your numbers statistically invalid for lack of data and lack of inclusion.

    • Christopher

      Our methodology for pollster weightings is based on (a) track record (i.e., how they actually performed in previous elections), (b) recency of polls, (c) variation within a pollster’s samples and (d) variation relative to the overall trend. The reason Nanos receives a high weighting is because of how it performs in each of these four categories, and also because Nanos is the only one producing federal polls on a regular basis at this point.

      You can look at our track record, which uses the same methodology, and see that this method has yielded solid results.

  16. Are you, like Canadian media whores, being paid by the Liberals to provide results they want Canadians brainwashed into producing? I say you’re ‘WAY off the mark in your predictions. Did you poll actual Canadians for these results? Fortunately, like the media, you too can be ignored. The people don’t need either of you anymore.

    • You are right Susie. Total nonsense. Guess they missed what happened to the Lowlife Liberals in Ontario…

    • Philip Burgers

      Nothing about this site suggests they have a bias. Is it possible you project that onto the people running this site because they might occasionally have results you don’t like?

      • Face it treudoe is gonna win thro cheating and manipulation any blind toddler can see that im voting ppc not that it matters i hope im wrong but lets be realistic here if u dont like treudoe the states are open trump can use the votes

    • I think you misunderstand what they actually do. They take polling results and have created a mathematical algorithm to analyze those polls. They don’t conduct any polls, are not related to any political party and simply use mathematical analysis of Canadian polls to predict who might win.

  17. Trudeau is giving Canadians a big FU for Christmas.Its about time we gave him the big FO. Hes done more damage to Canada than climate change ever has

  18. I agree with Susie, your all part of the fake media game, card carrying Liberals to say the least fake news at best, absolute BS.

  19. I’m wondering if you could make the map able to toggle back to previous updates so we could visually see how the ridings are changing over time. Great site guys.

  20. Bullshit! …The clown will be out next Election …Leftist libtard poll is what we have here. All other recent polls predict a majority win for the Conservatives if an election were held right now …and that will just increase with time as this idiot PM continues to fuck up!

  21. Laurent Desbois

    Mick O’Grady: They won’t pick up much in Quebec. The NDP will implode in Quebec. The Bloc Quebecois has a new leader who will take most of the currently elected NDP MPs. The Liberals will not have the benefit of the 3 way split in many Quebec ridings. Yves Francois Blanchette will revive the Bloc. The Ndp should have stuck with Mulcair.
    https://www.facebook.com/mickogrady2015/posts/10157105727418982

    Mick O’Grady, Very good analysis for Québec, but when will you realise Québec never decided anything in Canada since 1840…. It is what is called MAJORITY RULES!!!!

  22. How in the hell could libtards be in the lead. Anyone who votes for them freaks is lost.

  23. My rising in eastern according to the poll has 75 percent voting Liberal. They’d vote a dog if the dog wore a red tie. Pathetic.

  24. Anybody notice that these comments fall into two basic categories?
    Category One – thanks and appreciation of the data and useful suggestions.
    Category Two – invective and slurs and partisan attacks.
    I leave it to the reader to draw their own conclusions.

  25. The conservative goose is cooked. They have no chance of getting a single seat in Quebec, neither does the NDP. Liberals are going to sweep Quebec. Ford’s full blown idiocy means that Liberals are going to take a solid chunk of Ontario too. Thrown in wins in urban BC – and the Liberals are in with another majority. Prairies are pitiful and can go to hell. So can Alberta.

    • Actually, in Ontario we are leaning more in favour of the Conservatives just because of our very, very bad experience with the Liberals. However, I agree with you about Quebec, though I would say whoever wins is likely going to be a minority.

    • @MK Go ahead and continue to make light of the provinces that feed us and provide heating oil and natural gas to us here in the east. I saw the wind change in Quebec when the Bloc gained steam and in my recent trip to the west, there is a serious conversation of western separatism happening. This will only prove to have more validity and momentum should the west’s concerns continue to fall on deaf ears in Ottawa.

      Although I agree in general with your synopsis of a likely outcome in Que, BC and here in Ontario, it is people with an entitled perspective like yours that is poison to the solid country that once was united under Confederation.

  26. can u do one for the alberta provincial election

  27. when will the next poll update occur?

  28. MISINFORMATION. HOW OLD ARE THESE STATES? THERE ISN’T A PROVINCE IN CANADA THAT THE LIBERALS ARE WINNING, EXCEPT FOR THE MARITIMES. YOUR NUMBERS ARE SO FAR OFF ITS LAUGHABLE EVEN MY GRANDSON IS GETTING A GOOD LAUGH READING THIS AND HES A TEEN.

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