Disclaimer:

CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Instead, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Note: Some polls are behind a paywall and cannot be published on this website. These polls are currently represented as N/A to indicate that they are used in the projection.

Projected nationwide election results

last updated: Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 21:25 (Eastern Daylight Time)

national vote projections national seat projections
Liberal  Liberal logo 33.2%

 

162

 

Conservative  Conservative logo 33.7%

 

136

 

New Democrat  New Democrat logo 13.8%

 

24

 

Bloc Québécois  Bloc Québécois logo 4.4%

 

11

 

Green  Green logo 10.8%

 

5

 

Other  Other logo 4%

 

0

 

Trend line of all national polls published

last updated: Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 21:25 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Average regional breakdown of all published polls

last updated: Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 21:25 (Eastern Daylight Time)

NOTE: for in-depth regional and provincial data, see “Regional projections & riding-level data” section.

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown
last updated: Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 21:25 (Eastern Daylight Time)

All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

last updated: Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 21:25 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Polling Firm: Date: Source: Con. NDP Lib. Bloc Green Other Poll weight:  
Campaign 2019-08-13 33 13 32 4 12 6 0.365
Nanos 2019-08-09 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.103
Abacus 2019-08-06 33 17 32 4 10 4 0.071
Nanos 2019-08-02 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.003
Mainstreet 2019-07-31 34.1 11.1 34.5 4.4 11.1 4.8 0.054
Forum 2019-07-28 34 12 31 5 12 6 0.073
Nanos 2019-07-26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.002
Leger 2019-07-23 36 11 33 4 12 4 0.088
Nanos 2019-07-19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.001
Research Co. 2019-07-17 31 17 34 4 10 4 0.05
Abacus 2019-07-17 32 16 32 4 11 5 0.001
Ipsos 2019-07-15 37 18 31 5 7 2 0.049
Campaign 2019-07-12 32 14 33 4 14 3 0.001
Angus Reid 2019-07-12 38 14 30 4 10 4 0.048
Nanos 2019-07-12 29.7 18.5 35.9 4.8 8.3 2.8 0.001
Nanos 2019-07-05 30.4 17.9 34.6 4.9 8.8 3.4 0.001
Abacus 2019-07-02 33 16 32 4 11 4 0.001
Mainstreet 2019-07-02 33.2 10.4 35 4.5 10.3 6.6 0.001
Ekos 2019-06-29 34.1 9.7 31.6 3.8 12.6 8.2 0.031
Nanos 2019-06-28 31.7 16.5 34.5 4.6 9.8 1.9 0.001
DART 2019-06-27 37 17 33 5 7 1 0.044
Forum 2019-06-23 35 13 29 5 12 6 0.002
Nanos 2019-06-21 32.8 16.9 32.5 4.9 10.2 2.7 0.001
Ekos 2019-06-17 34.2 12 30.1 4.3 13.2 6.2 0
Nanos 2019-06-14 34 16.8 30.3 4.6 11.4 2.9 0.001
Leger 2019-06-10 38 13 29 4 11 5 0.002
Ipsos 2019-06-07 37 18 31 5 6 3 0.001
Nanos 2019-06-07 34.2 16.9 30.9 4 11.3 2.7 0.001
Campaign 2019-06-06 35 14 32 4 12 3 0.001
Angus Reid 2019-06-04 37 15 26 5 12 5 0.001

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