Disclaimer:

CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Projected nationwide election results

last updated: Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 20:19 (Eastern Daylight Time)

national vote projections national seat projections
Liberal  Liberal logo 32.4%

 

142

 

Conservative  Conservative logo 36.7%

 

153

 

New Democrat  New Democrat logo 15.4%

 

30

 

Bloc Québécois  Bloc Québécois logo 4.3%

 

10

 

Green  Green logo 8.1%

 

3

 

Other  Other logo 3.1%

 

0

 

Trend line of all national polls published

last updated: Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 20:19 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Average regional breakdown of all published polls

last updated: Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 20:19 (Eastern Daylight Time)

NOTE: for in-depth regional and provincial data, see “Regional projections & riding-level data” section.

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown
last updated: Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 20:19 (Eastern Daylight Time)

All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

last updated: Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 20:19 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Polling Firm: Date: Source: Con. NDP Lib. Bloc Green Other Poll weight:  
Abacus 2019-03-10 34 16 32 4 11 3 0.172
Campaign 2019-03-10 36 16 30 4 10 4 0.163
Abacus 2019-03-09 35 16 31 4 11 3 0.058
Abacus 2019-03-08 36 15 31 5 10 3 0.036
Nanos 2019-03-08 36.1 17.9 32.9 3.6 8.3 1.2 0.111
Abacus 2019-03-07 34 16 33 4 10 3 0.022
Abacus 2019-03-06 34 18 32 4 9 3 0.014
Abacus 2019-03-05 35 17 31 4 9 4 0.009
Abacus 2019-03-04 36 17 30 5 9 3 0.006
Innovative 2019-03-04 32 13 36 5 9 5 0.047
Ipsos 2019-03-04 40 20 31 4 4 1 0.058
Nanos 2019-03-01 34.7 15.5 34.2 3.6 9.1 2.9 0.003
Forum 2019-02-28 42 12 33 3 5 5 0.059
Angus Reid 2019-02-24 38 14 31 5 8 4 0.065
Nanos 2019-02-22 33.6 15 35.7 3.7 8.4 3.6 0.002
Leger 2019-02-19 36 12 34 5 8 5 0.108
Ipsos 2019-02-18 36 17 34 6 7 0 0.001
Nanos 2019-02-15 31.8 13.7 37.9 4.1 7.8 4.7 0.002
Campaign 2019-02-11 37 14 32 5 7 5 0.001
Nanos 2019-02-08 34.4 13 37.5 3.8 7.4 3.9 0.002
Nanos 2019-02-01 35.9 13.2 37.6 3.1 7.9 2.3 0.002
Nanos 2019-01-25 36.6 12.8 37.6 3 8.4 1.6 0.002
Innovative 2019-01-24 32 12 38 5 8 5 0
Mainstreet 2019-01-18 35.1 11.5 37.2 3.2 7.2 5.8 0.051
Nanos 2019-01-18 36.1 14.2 37.2 3.2 7.4 1.9 0.001
Nanos 2019-01-11 33.9 15.4 38.1 3.3 6.9 2.4 0.001
Nanos 2019-01-04 33.3 16.7 38.7 3 6 2.3 0.001
Nanos 2018-12-28 34.4 16.1 36.8 3.4 6.4 2.9 0.001
Nanos 2018-12-21 34.1 16 35.2 3.8 7 3.9 0.001
Abacus 2018-12-18 34 17 35 4 7 3 0.001

8 Comments

  1. Trudeau is the absolute worst leader this country has ever had. Elect a clown and end up with a circus! So far left of the spectrum it’s off the charts. FLUSH THE TURD 2019.

  2. Ryan Bertenko

    Anything but Liberal Oct 2019

  3. Sebastien Vachon

    Where is the People’s Party of Canada in your predictions ?

    In some ridings in Quebec City area they are way ahead of NDP & Bloc Quebecois. In Beauce, they are projected as winner with Maxime Bernier, the leader of the party.

    • christopher

      This will be added. The only riding level poll for Beauce doesn’t support your projection of Bernier winning, at this time.

  4. Conbin Spark

    I do not support them, but you should consider putting the People’s Party of Canada in your predictions instead of putting them as “other.” In some cases I seen them poll at 5%. I think it shows poorly on your part that they are not listed as a party. Also you should consider doing predictions weekly (or bi-weekly) but that’s just a suggestion.

  5. Good to see I’m not the only one that regrets voting Liberal in 2015.

  6. Valerie McDonald

    Not voting liberal

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