Disclaimer:

CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Projected nationwide election results

last updated: Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 20:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)

national vote projections national seat projections
Liberal  Liberal logo 32.9%

 

143

 

Conservative  Conservative logo 35.9%

 

150

 

New Democrat  New Democrat logo 14.9%

 

27

 

Bloc Québécois  Bloc Québécois logo 4.7%

 

14

 

Green  Green logo 8.5%

 

3

 

Other  Other logo 3.2%

 

1

 

Trend line of all national polls published

last updated: Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 20:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Average regional breakdown of all published polls

last updated: Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 20:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)

NOTE: for in-depth regional and provincial data, see “Regional projections & riding-level data” section.

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown
last updated: Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 20:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)

All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

last updated: Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 20:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Polling Firm: Date: Source: Con. NDP Lib. Bloc Green Other Poll weight:  
Nanos 2019-04-12 35 14.9 34.1 4.5 8.8 2.7 0.328
Innovative 2019-04-10 32 13 36 4 10 5 0.135
Forum 2019-04-06 42 12 29 6 9 2 0.102
Campaign 2019-04-06 34 15 32 5 10 4 0.085
Nanos 2019-04-05 34.9 16.6 32.8 4 9.5 2.2 0.009
Nanos 2019-03-29 35.1 16.6 34.6 4.4 8.1 1.2 0.002
Ipsos 2019-03-27 40 21 30 5 3 1 0.048
Angus Reid 2019-03-25 37 17 28 5 8 5 0.069
Nanos 2019-03-22 34.6 19.4 32.5 3.9 8.3 1.3 0.002
Forum 2019-03-20 41 14 35 1 6 3 0.002
Leger 2019-03-20 37 14 31 4 10 4 0.115
Nanos 2019-03-15 35.5 19.9 32.6 3.2 7.7 1.1 0.002
Abacus 2019-03-10 34 16 32 4 11 3 0.071
Campaign 2019-03-10 36 16 30 4 10 4 0.001
Abacus 2019-03-09 35 16 31 4 11 3 0.002
Abacus 2019-03-08 36 15 31 5 10 3 0.002
Nanos 2019-03-08 36.1 17.9 32.9 3.6 8.3 1.2 0.002
Abacus 2019-03-07 34 16 33 4 10 3 0.002
Abacus 2019-03-06 34 18 32 4 9 3 0.002
Abacus 2019-03-05 35 17 31 4 9 4 0.002
Abacus 2019-03-04 36 17 30 5 9 3 0.002
Innovative 2019-03-04 32 13 36 5 9 5 0.001
Ipsos 2019-03-04 40 20 31 4 4 1 0.001
Nanos 2019-03-01 34.7 15.5 34.2 3.6 9.1 2.9 0.002
Forum 2019-02-28 42 12 33 3 5 5 0.002
Angus Reid 2019-02-24 38 14 31 5 8 4 0.001
Nanos 2019-02-22 33.6 15 35.7 3.7 8.4 3.6 0.002
Leger 2019-02-19 36 12 34 5 8 5 0.004
Ipsos 2019-02-18 36 17 34 6 7 0 0.001
Nanos 2019-02-15 31.8 13.7 37.9 4.1 7.8 4.7 0.001

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