Disclaimer:

CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Projected nationwide election results

last updated: Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 19:09 (Eastern Daylight Time)

national vote projections national seat projections
Liberal  Liberal logo 32.9%

 

150

 

Conservative  Conservative logo 33.4%

 

135

 

New Democrat  New Democrat logo 15.2%

 

32

 

Bloc Québécois  Bloc Québécois logo 4.7%

 

17

 

Green  Green logo 10%

 

3

 

Other  Other logo 3.9%

 

1

 

Trend line of all national polls published

last updated: Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 19:09 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Average regional breakdown of all published polls

last updated: Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 19:09 (Eastern Daylight Time)

NOTE: for in-depth regional and provincial data, see “Regional projections & riding-level data” section.

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown
last updated: Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 19:09 (Eastern Daylight Time)

All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

last updated: Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 19:09 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Polling Firm: Date: Source: Con. NDP Lib. Bloc Green Other Poll weight:  
Nanos 2019-07-05 30.4 17.9 34.6 4.9 8.8 3.4 0.283
Abacus 2019-07-02 33 16 32 4 11 4 0.125
Mainstreet 2019-07-02 33.2 10.4 35 4.5 10.3 6.6 0.111
Ekos 2019-06-29 34.1 9.7 31.6 3.8 12.6 8.2 0.046
Nanos 2019-06-28 31.7 16.5 34.5 4.6 9.8 1.9 0.009
DART 2019-06-27 37 17 33 5 7 1 0.066
Forum 2019-06-23 35 13 29 5 12 6 0.084
Nanos 2019-06-21 32.8 16.9 32.5 4.9 10.2 2.7 0.002
Ekos 2019-06-17 34.2 12 30.1 4.3 13.2 6.2 0.001
Nanos 2019-06-14 34 16.8 30.3 4.6 11.4 2.9 0.002
Leger 2019-06-10 38 13 29 4 11 5 0.096
Ipsos 2019-06-07 37 18 31 5 6 3 0.047
Nanos 2019-06-07 34.2 16.9 30.9 4 11.3 2.7 0.002
Campaign 2019-06-06 35 14 32 4 12 3 0.055
Angus Reid 2019-06-04 37 15 26 5 12 5 0.052
Forum 2019-06-02 34 13 30 6 13 4 0.002
Nanos 2019-05-31 34.3 16.4 29.5 4.4 11.5 3.9 0.002
Abacus 2019-05-30 32 16 33 3 12 4 0.001
Nanos 2019-05-24 34.8 15.6 29.2 4.7 11.5 4.2 0.001
Nanos 2019-05-17 35.9 14.2 30.6 4 11.1 4.2 0.001
Nanos 2019-05-10 35.4 15 29.7 4.4 11.3 4.2 0.001
Nanos 2019-05-03 34.5 15.9 31.8 4.6 9.7 3.5 0.001
Campaign 2019-05-01 35 17 31 3 10 4 0.001
Angus Reid 2019-04-30 38 18 25 5 11 3 0.001
Abacus 2019-04-30 34 17 31 4 9 5 0.001
Nanos 2019-04-26 34.9 16.5 32 4.1 9 3.5 0.001
Ipsos 2019-04-25 36 19 32 5 6 2 0.001
Forum 2019-04-24 37 14 30 6 9 4 0.001
Leger 2019-04-22 40 12 27 5 11 5 0.002
Nanos 2019-04-18 35.5 15.2 33 4.7 8.4 3.2 0.001

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