Disclaimer:

CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Projected nationwide election results

last updated: Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 20:19 (Eastern Daylight Time)

national vote projections national seat projections
Liberal  Liberal logo 32.4%

 

142

 

Conservative  Conservative logo 36.7%

 

153

 

New Democrat  New Democrat logo 15.4%

 

30

 

Bloc Québécois  Bloc Québécois logo 4.3%

 

10

 

Green  Green logo 8.1%

 

3

 

Other  Other logo 3.1%

 

0

 

Trend line of all national polls published

last updated: Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 20:19 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Average regional breakdown of all published polls

last updated: Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 20:19 (Eastern Daylight Time)

NOTE: for in-depth regional and provincial data, see “Regional projections & riding-level data” section.

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown
last updated: Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 20:19 (Eastern Daylight Time)

All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

last updated: Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 20:19 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Polling Firm: Date: Source: Con. NDP Lib. Bloc Green Other Poll weight:  
Abacus 2019-03-10 34 16 32 4 11 3 0.172
Campaign 2019-03-10 36 16 30 4 10 4 0.163
Abacus 2019-03-09 35 16 31 4 11 3 0.058
Abacus 2019-03-08 36 15 31 5 10 3 0.036
Nanos 2019-03-08 36.1 17.9 32.9 3.6 8.3 1.2 0.111
Abacus 2019-03-07 34 16 33 4 10 3 0.022
Abacus 2019-03-06 34 18 32 4 9 3 0.014
Abacus 2019-03-05 35 17 31 4 9 4 0.009
Abacus 2019-03-04 36 17 30 5 9 3 0.006
Innovative 2019-03-04 32 13 36 5 9 5 0.047
Ipsos 2019-03-04 40 20 31 4 4 1 0.058
Nanos 2019-03-01 34.7 15.5 34.2 3.6 9.1 2.9 0.003
Forum 2019-02-28 42 12 33 3 5 5 0.059
Angus Reid 2019-02-24 38 14 31 5 8 4 0.065
Nanos 2019-02-22 33.6 15 35.7 3.7 8.4 3.6 0.002
Leger 2019-02-19 36 12 34 5 8 5 0.108
Ipsos 2019-02-18 36 17 34 6 7 0 0.001
Nanos 2019-02-15 31.8 13.7 37.9 4.1 7.8 4.7 0.002
Campaign 2019-02-11 37 14 32 5 7 5 0.001
Nanos 2019-02-08 34.4 13 37.5 3.8 7.4 3.9 0.002
Nanos 2019-02-01 35.9 13.2 37.6 3.1 7.9 2.3 0.002
Nanos 2019-01-25 36.6 12.8 37.6 3 8.4 1.6 0.002
Innovative 2019-01-24 32 12 38 5 8 5 0
Mainstreet 2019-01-18 35.1 11.5 37.2 3.2 7.2 5.8 0.051
Nanos 2019-01-18 36.1 14.2 37.2 3.2 7.4 1.9 0.001
Nanos 2019-01-11 33.9 15.4 38.1 3.3 6.9 2.4 0.001
Nanos 2019-01-04 33.3 16.7 38.7 3 6 2.3 0.001
Nanos 2018-12-28 34.4 16.1 36.8 3.4 6.4 2.9 0.001
Nanos 2018-12-21 34.1 16 35.2 3.8 7 3.9 0.001
Abacus 2018-12-18 34 17 35 4 7 3 0.001

56 Comments

  1. Martin McIntyre

    The trouble is , is that so far I hear a lot about the law from those that have concluded that a party is guilty of a crime which has not been proven. The conservatives NDP and other parties have lots of accusations which is their platform but Don’t talk to me about obstruction and interference when you find a party guilty before it has been proven. All politicians hide the truth to stay in their seats in my opinion.

  2. Hi I live in quebec and I can assure you that except montreal, most here do not support Trudeau… Nous préfèrons les conservateurs et le bloc que l’écervelé de Trudeau. Certes j’apprécies votre site, votre travail. Keep it on you guys are still doing a good job.

    • Anonymous

      That is good to hear

      • TrueNorthStrong

        The only platform the conservatives have is bashing the liberals. SNC will not change the voters minds. Blown way out of proportion

        • Mal Falcon

          The only platform the liberals have is lying, increasing taxes, obstructing justice, inviting terrorists into Canada, increasing debt, and convincing twitts like you that you to let leave of your senses and vote for the criminals.

    • Oliver May

      Then, I can assure you that just as Montréal does not represent Québec, neither does Québec City.

      There is still lots of support for the Bloc and NDP in Québec – indeed, far more than for the Conservatives.

      What is more interesting to me is the absence of the PPC and Maxime Bernier. Will he win Beauce?
      And for those who say the Conservatives won’t win seats in Québec, they will get at least 8.

      (Oh, and I live in Québec City which is far more useful than telling us which province you live in).

  3. Funny how all these polls completely ignore the PPC, who will likely gain A LOT of the center left Liberal and center right CPC voters.

  4. MISINFORMATION. HOW OLD ARE THESE STATES? THERE ISN’T A PROVINCE IN CANADA THAT THE LIBERALS ARE WINNING, EXCEPT FOR THE MARITIMES. YOUR NUMBERS ARE SO FAR OFF ITS LAUGHABLE EVEN MY GRANDSON IS GETTING A GOOD LAUGH READING THIS AND HES A TEEN.

    • Anonymous

      You’ve left caps lock on. You should probably get your grandson to proofread before you post. But I’m glad to hear your grandson was able to understand numbers and the relative differences between them, I hear most teenagers can’t do that…you should be proud they were raised to such a high standard!

  5. when will the next poll update occur?

  6. can u do one for the alberta provincial election

  7. The conservative goose is cooked. They have no chance of getting a single seat in Quebec, neither does the NDP. Liberals are going to sweep Quebec. Ford’s full blown idiocy means that Liberals are going to take a solid chunk of Ontario too. Thrown in wins in urban BC – and the Liberals are in with another majority. Prairies are pitiful and can go to hell. So can Alberta.

    • Actually, in Ontario we are leaning more in favour of the Conservatives just because of our very, very bad experience with the Liberals. However, I agree with you about Quebec, though I would say whoever wins is likely going to be a minority.

    • @MK Go ahead and continue to make light of the provinces that feed us and provide heating oil and natural gas to us here in the east. I saw the wind change in Quebec when the Bloc gained steam and in my recent trip to the west, there is a serious conversation of western separatism happening. This will only prove to have more validity and momentum should the west’s concerns continue to fall on deaf ears in Ottawa.

      Although I agree in general with your synopsis of a likely outcome in Que, BC and here in Ontario, it is people with an entitled perspective like yours that is poison to the solid country that once was united under Confederation.

  8. Anybody notice that these comments fall into two basic categories?
    Category One – thanks and appreciation of the data and useful suggestions.
    Category Two – invective and slurs and partisan attacks.
    I leave it to the reader to draw their own conclusions.

  9. My rising in eastern according to the poll has 75 percent voting Liberal. They’d vote a dog if the dog wore a red tie. Pathetic.

  10. How in the hell could libtards be in the lead. Anyone who votes for them freaks is lost.

    • Agree, yet a lot of people like Mr. Dress Up and that is totally unbelievable. There is no getting around stupidity.

  11. Laurent Desbois

    Mick O’Grady: They won’t pick up much in Quebec. The NDP will implode in Quebec. The Bloc Quebecois has a new leader who will take most of the currently elected NDP MPs. The Liberals will not have the benefit of the 3 way split in many Quebec ridings. Yves Francois Blanchette will revive the Bloc. The Ndp should have stuck with Mulcair.
    https://www.facebook.com/mickogrady2015/posts/10157105727418982

    Mick O’Grady, Very good analysis for Québec, but when will you realise Québec never decided anything in Canada since 1840…. It is what is called MAJORITY RULES!!!!

  12. Bullshit! …The clown will be out next Election …Leftist libtard poll is what we have here. All other recent polls predict a majority win for the Conservatives if an election were held right now …and that will just increase with time as this idiot PM continues to fuck up!

  13. I’m wondering if you could make the map able to toggle back to previous updates so we could visually see how the ridings are changing over time. Great site guys.

  14. I agree with Susie, your all part of the fake media game, card carrying Liberals to say the least fake news at best, absolute BS.

  15. Trudeau is giving Canadians a big FU for Christmas.Its about time we gave him the big FO. Hes done more damage to Canada than climate change ever has

    • TRUDEAU MUST GO – FROM ONTARIO. ONTARIOANS ARE SICK OF HIS CRAP TOO!

    • I mean, you might be right? Climate change is really going to screw over Canada hard in the future, it hasn’t damaged us too much relatively speaking, but at least Trudeau is constantly engaging the community on how to resolve this and other issues (something most other prime ministers didn’t do), rather than sidestepping the issue. I mean Canada will see some benefits from climate change, such as the opening of the northwest passage for shipping, but I think it will ultimately be a large negative for us.
      I’m just glad we have people like you, making their voices count, so politicians really have clear definitive ways to improve this country! I’m sure your life will turn out better than the glenn from the walking dead…but then again, climate change and all :\

    • Mike Trahan

      What damage are you talking about Glenn? The economy is doing very well, jobs are being created, wages are going up.

      What damage are your referring to exactly?

  16. Are you, like Canadian media whores, being paid by the Liberals to provide results they want Canadians brainwashed into producing? I say you’re ‘WAY off the mark in your predictions. Did you poll actual Canadians for these results? Fortunately, like the media, you too can be ignored. The people don’t need either of you anymore.

    • You are right Susie. Total nonsense. Guess they missed what happened to the Lowlife Liberals in Ontario…

    • Philip Burgers

      Nothing about this site suggests they have a bias. Is it possible you project that onto the people running this site because they might occasionally have results you don’t like?

      • Face it treudoe is gonna win thro cheating and manipulation any blind toddler can see that im voting ppc not that it matters i hope im wrong but lets be realistic here if u dont like treudoe the states are open trump can use the votes

    • I think you misunderstand what they actually do. They take polling results and have created a mathematical algorithm to analyze those polls. They don’t conduct any polls, are not related to any political party and simply use mathematical analysis of Canadian polls to predict who might win.

    • Disclaimer
      CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data.

      The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

      Did you read the disclaimer?

  17. Don MacDonell

    Why does Nanos, which has an apparent and consistent pro Liberal bias, always represent more than 50% of your average. There are lots of other polls out there, but you never include them in your averages. That makes your numbers statistically invalid for lack of data and lack of inclusion.

    • Christopher

      Our methodology for pollster weightings is based on (a) track record (i.e., how they actually performed in previous elections), (b) recency of polls, (c) variation within a pollster’s samples and (d) variation relative to the overall trend. The reason Nanos receives a high weighting is because of how it performs in each of these four categories, and also because Nanos is the only one producing federal polls on a regular basis at this point.

      You can look at our track record, which uses the same methodology, and see that this method has yielded solid results.

  18. when r you going to update your predictions

  19. These polls for the most part have a Liberal bias, don’t believe any of them except Forum. Forum is the only non partisan polling company in the country.

  20. Concerned Canadian Girl

    Please.. this can’t be real.. this can’t be real..

  21. Concerned Canadian Girl

    There is absolutely NO way Liberals are leading.

  22. When will this be updated again?

  23. I think your polls are way off. Why don’t you really reflect what is going on in Canada instead of publishing fake news. Ontario just had a landslide conservative majority. The Quebec liberals just got the punt. Alberta Sask and Manitoba are going Blue. JT is planning on forging ahead with his Carbon Tax. Once every home is affected by higher heating, electrical and gasoline prices, people will wake up. For what. Just so there is more revenue in Federal coffers to buy more battle ships, fighter planes, and send our hard earned money to third world countries.
    Where are all these seats coming from for another Liberal majority. I think the Canadian population is finally waking up.

  24. Your table of all election poll results says it is for the 2015 election – do you mean for the 2019 election? And please include updated data past March 9 2018.

  25. You say data have been updated September 3rd, but the last point on your graph says March 9th – are you not showing anything that has happened during the summer?

  26. Blair Cusack

    Excellent site!
    A couple of questions if I may:

    1. How do you disaggregate the Poll to apply it at the constituency level? Are you using a historical trend formula there, with a set of co-efficients tied to your aggregated data…or…?

    2. Are the weights you are using for the “Polling Firms” dynamic with respect to their individual rankings (ie out of 14) and/or other traits of those Firms?

    Thanks very much,
    A pleasure to “read”!

  27. David Herr

    For the July 29, 2018 federal election polling roundup, I don’t know how you arrived at such a huge lead for the Liberals, when none of the recent polls that make up your composite show such a high lead. the poll comprising over 50% of the composite shows a 3 point liberal lead, yet overall you have the lead at 8.7% and 100 seats! Please update with some explanation of how the composite lead dwarfs the lead in any of the component polls. Thanks!

  28. I would really enjoy if you could update the site on a monthly basis.I appreciate that you are both probably very busy with other projects but for a political animal like myself I am disappointed that the site was not updated on July 9th as in the past 2 previous months.Having said this I congratulate you for the work you have done to this point and hope you can find the time to improve your site as time passes.

  29. Is there any chance that this site could be updated on a by-weekly time frame as we get closer to the Federal Election.I would also like to see projections for the New Brunswick and Quebec Elections.This would be greatly appreciated.

    Thank you

  30. Hi,
    On June 5 your projection for Edmonton Strathcona had the spread between the NDP and CPC at 4 points. The spread jumped to 17 points on the June 9 update. Can you explain the dramatic change?

    Thanks

  31. When are you guys going to put data on the 2018 provincial New Brunswick and Quebec elections

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