Disclaimer:

CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Projected nationwide election results

last updated: October 21, 2018 at 14:42 (Eastern Daylight Time)

national vote projections national seat projections
Liberal  Liberal logo 37.1%

 

174

 

Conservative  Conservative logo 33.4%

 

122

 

New Democrat  New Democrat logo 16%

 

30

 

Bloc Québécois  Bloc Québécois logo 3.9%

 

9

 

Green  Green logo 7%

 

3

 

Other  Other logo 2.5%

 

0

 

Trend line of all national polls published

last updated: October 21, 2018 at 14:42 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Average regional breakdown of all published polls

last updated: October 21, 2018 at 14:42 (Eastern Daylight Time)

NOTE: for in-depth regional and provincial data, see “Regional projections & riding-level data” section.

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown
last updated: October 21, 2018 at 14:42 (Eastern Daylight Time)

All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

last updated: October 21, 2018 at 14:42 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Polling Firm: Date: Source: Con. NDP Lib. Bloc Green Other Poll weight:  
Nanos 2018-10-12 31.4 16.1 37.1 3.7 7.2 4.5 0.434
Forum 2018-10-10 41 15 32 4 7 1 0.219
Nanos 2018-10-05 31.1 16.2 37.3 3.8 6.7 4.9 0.012
Innovative 2018-10-01 31 15 38 5 7 4 0.058
Nanos 2018-09-28 31.7 16.7 38 2.6 6 5 0.003
Nanos 2018-09-21 31.2 17 39 2.4 5.5 4.9 0.003
Pollara 2018-09-20 34 12 40 3 7 4 0.039
Abacus 2018-09-19 34 17 38 3 7 1 0.103
DART 2018-09-19 38 17 30 5 8 2 0.028
Campaign 2018-09-14 37.8 14.8 35.8 4.8 6.8 0 0.039
Nanos 2018-09-14 31.4 14.9 41.1 2 5.8 4.8 0.003
Nanos 2018-09-07 32.8 14.9 39.9 2.5 6.5 3.4 0.003
Nanos 2018-08-31 32.4 15.8 39.9 3.4 6.7 1.8 0.003
Abacus 2018-08-24 34 18 37 3 6 2 0.002
Nanos 2018-08-24 34.4 16.5 38.8 2.9 6.3 1.1 0.002
Abacus 2018-08-20 33 18 37 3 8 1 0.002
Nanos 2018-08-17 33.9 19 37.5 3.2 5.7 0.7 0.002
Forum 2018-08-12 42 15 36 2 4 1 0.002
Nanos 2018-08-10 35.1 20.1 35.8 3.2 4.8 1 0.002
Nanos 2018-08-03 36.6 17.8 36.9 2.3 5.2 1.2 0.002
Nanos 2018-07-27 35.2 19.1 35.8 2.2 6.6 1.1 0.001
Ekos 2018-07-26 32.1 17.3 34.9 4 9.3 2.4 0.02
Nanos 2018-07-20 35.9 19 35.8 2 6.1 1.2 0.001
Mainstreet 2018-07-17 36.9 11.8 39.4 2.4 7 2.5 0.008
Ipsos 2018-07-16 32 21 39 2 6 0 0.007
Nanos 2018-07-13 34.5 18.4 37.3 1.8 7.1 0.9 0
Nanos 2018-07-06 33.4 20.3 35.7 2.4 6.8 1.4 0
Ipsos 2018-06-29 37 21 33 3 5 1 0
Nanos 2018-06-29 33.1 20.8 36.5 2.7 5.4 1.5 0
Nanos 2018-06-22 32 20.6 36.7 3.6 5.7 1.4 0

9 Comments

  1. When are you guys going to put data on the 2018 provincial New Brunswick and Quebec elections

  2. Hi,
    On June 5 your projection for Edmonton Strathcona had the spread between the NDP and CPC at 4 points. The spread jumped to 17 points on the June 9 update. Can you explain the dramatic change?

    Thanks

  3. Is there any chance that this site could be updated on a by-weekly time frame as we get closer to the Federal Election.I would also like to see projections for the New Brunswick and Quebec Elections.This would be greatly appreciated.

    Thank you

  4. I would really enjoy if you could update the site on a monthly basis.I appreciate that you are both probably very busy with other projects but for a political animal like myself I am disappointed that the site was not updated on July 9th as in the past 2 previous months.Having said this I congratulate you for the work you have done to this point and hope you can find the time to improve your site as time passes.

  5. David Herr

    For the July 29, 2018 federal election polling roundup, I don’t know how you arrived at such a huge lead for the Liberals, when none of the recent polls that make up your composite show such a high lead. the poll comprising over 50% of the composite shows a 3 point liberal lead, yet overall you have the lead at 8.7% and 100 seats! Please update with some explanation of how the composite lead dwarfs the lead in any of the component polls. Thanks!

  6. Blair Cusack

    Excellent site!
    A couple of questions if I may:

    1. How do you disaggregate the Poll to apply it at the constituency level? Are you using a historical trend formula there, with a set of co-efficients tied to your aggregated data…or…?

    2. Are the weights you are using for the “Polling Firms” dynamic with respect to their individual rankings (ie out of 14) and/or other traits of those Firms?

    Thanks very much,
    A pleasure to “read”!

  7. You say data have been updated September 3rd, but the last point on your graph says March 9th – are you not showing anything that has happened during the summer?

  8. Your table of all election poll results says it is for the 2015 election – do you mean for the 2019 election? And please include updated data past March 9 2018.

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