Disclaimer:

CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Projected nationwide election results

last updated: December 16, 2018 at 06:33 (Eastern Daylight Time)

national vote projections national seat projections
Liberal  Liberal logo 36.5%

 

174

 

Conservative  Conservative logo 34.7%

 

135

 

New Democrat  New Democrat logo 14.7%

 

24

 

Bloc Québécois  Bloc Québécois logo 3.6%

 

3

 

Green  Green logo 7.2%

 

2

 

Other  Other logo 3.2%

 

0

 

Trend line of all national polls published

last updated: December 16, 2018 at 06:33 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Average regional breakdown of all published polls

last updated: December 16, 2018 at 06:33 (Eastern Daylight Time)

NOTE: for in-depth regional and provincial data, see “Regional projections & riding-level data” section.

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown
last updated: December 16, 2018 at 06:33 (Eastern Daylight Time)

All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

last updated: December 16, 2018 at 06:33 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Polling Firm: Date: Source: Con. NDP Lib. Bloc Green Other Poll weight:  
Nanos 2018-12-07 34.8 15.8 34.1 3.1 8.2 4 0.486
Nanos 2018-11-30 32.2 14.3 37.9 3 7.6 5 0.014
Forum 2018-11-29 43 11 34 4 6 2 0.093
Nanos 2018-11-23 31.5 14.5 39.6 2.4 6.9 5.1 0.003
Leger 2018-11-20 33 14 39 4 5 5 0.142
Nanos 2018-11-16 28.7 17.2 39.4 2.5 7.3 4.9 0.003
Abacus 2018-11-13 31 16 38 4 9 2 0.073
Campaign 2018-11-09 35 17 35 4 7 2 0.037
Nanos 2018-11-09 27.5 19.8 39.4 2 6.1 5.2 0.003
Mainstreet 2018-11-07 34.6 10.8 39.3 3.4 6.8 5.1 0.031
Nanos 2018-11-02 28.1 19.3 39.6 1.9 6.9 4.2 0.003
Nanos 2018-10-26 28.2 19.3 39.4 2.8 6.5 3.8 0.003
Nanos 2018-10-19 29.4 16.9 39.5 3.6 7 3.6 0.002
Nanos 2018-10-12 31.4 16.1 37.1 3.7 7.2 4.5 0.002
Forum 2018-10-10 41 15 32 4 7 1 0.003
Nanos 2018-10-05 31.1 16.2 37.3 3.8 6.7 4.9 0.002
Innovative 2018-10-01 31 15 38 5 7 4 0.04
Nanos 2018-09-28 31.7 16.7 38 2.6 6 5 0.002
Nanos 2018-09-21 31.2 17 39 2.4 5.5 4.9 0.002
Pollara 2018-09-20 34 12 40 3 7 4 0.027
Abacus 2018-09-19 34 17 38 3 7 1 0.002
DART 2018-09-19 38 17 30 5 8 2 0.018
Campaign 2018-09-14 37.8 14.8 35.8 4.8 6.8 0 0
Nanos 2018-09-14 31.4 14.9 41.1 2 5.8 4.8 0.002
Nanos 2018-09-07 32.8 14.9 39.9 2.5 6.5 3.4 0.002
Nanos 2018-08-31 32.4 15.8 39.9 3.4 6.7 1.8 0.002
Abacus 2018-08-24 34 18 37 3 6 2 0.001
Nanos 2018-08-24 34.4 16.5 38.8 2.9 6.3 1.1 0.002
Abacus 2018-08-20 33 18 37 3 8 1 0.001
Nanos 2018-08-17 33.9 19 37.5 3.2 5.7 0.7 0.001

15 Comments

  1. When are you guys going to put data on the 2018 provincial New Brunswick and Quebec elections

  2. Hi,
    On June 5 your projection for Edmonton Strathcona had the spread between the NDP and CPC at 4 points. The spread jumped to 17 points on the June 9 update. Can you explain the dramatic change?

    Thanks

  3. Is there any chance that this site could be updated on a by-weekly time frame as we get closer to the Federal Election.I would also like to see projections for the New Brunswick and Quebec Elections.This would be greatly appreciated.

    Thank you

  4. I would really enjoy if you could update the site on a monthly basis.I appreciate that you are both probably very busy with other projects but for a political animal like myself I am disappointed that the site was not updated on July 9th as in the past 2 previous months.Having said this I congratulate you for the work you have done to this point and hope you can find the time to improve your site as time passes.

  5. David Herr

    For the July 29, 2018 federal election polling roundup, I don’t know how you arrived at such a huge lead for the Liberals, when none of the recent polls that make up your composite show such a high lead. the poll comprising over 50% of the composite shows a 3 point liberal lead, yet overall you have the lead at 8.7% and 100 seats! Please update with some explanation of how the composite lead dwarfs the lead in any of the component polls. Thanks!

  6. Blair Cusack

    Excellent site!
    A couple of questions if I may:

    1. How do you disaggregate the Poll to apply it at the constituency level? Are you using a historical trend formula there, with a set of co-efficients tied to your aggregated data…or…?

    2. Are the weights you are using for the “Polling Firms” dynamic with respect to their individual rankings (ie out of 14) and/or other traits of those Firms?

    Thanks very much,
    A pleasure to “read”!

  7. You say data have been updated September 3rd, but the last point on your graph says March 9th – are you not showing anything that has happened during the summer?

  8. Your table of all election poll results says it is for the 2015 election – do you mean for the 2019 election? And please include updated data past March 9 2018.

  9. When will this be updated again?

  10. when r you going to update your predictions

  11. Don MacDonell

    Why does Nanos, which has an apparent and consistent pro Liberal bias, always represent more than 50% of your average. There are lots of other polls out there, but you never include them in your averages. That makes your numbers statistically invalid for lack of data and lack of inclusion.

    • Christopher

      Our methodology for pollster weightings is based on (a) track record (i.e., how they actually performed in previous elections), (b) recency of polls, (c) variation within a pollster’s samples and (d) variation relative to the overall trend. The reason Nanos receives a high weighting is because of how it performs in each of these four categories, and also because Nanos is the only one producing federal polls on a regular basis at this point.

      You can look at our track record, which uses the same methodology, and see that this method has yielded solid results.

  12. Are you, like Canadian media whores, being paid by the Liberals to provide results they want Canadians brainwashed into producing? I say you’re ‘WAY off the mark in your predictions. Did you poll actual Canadians for these results? Fortunately, like the media, you too can be ignored. The people don’t need either of you anymore.

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