Disclaimer:
CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown
last updated: October 1, 2018 at 07:39 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected election results in Quebec

Vote projections Seat projections
Liberal  Liberal logo 30%

 

46

 

Parti Québécois  Parti Québécois logo 18.9%

 

14

 

CAQ  CAQ logo 32.3%

 

57

 

Québec solidaire  QS logo 16.3%

 

8

 

Other / Autre  Other logo 2.6%

 

0

 

Trend line of all Quebec polls

last updated: October 1, 2018 at 07:39 (Eastern Daylight Time)

2018 Quebec election opinion polls:

last updated: October 1, 2018 at 07:39 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Polling Firm: Date: Source: Lib. PQ CAQ QS Other Poll weight:  
Forum 2018-09-30 28 20 33 17 2 0.284
Research Co. 2018-09-30 30 18 33 16 3 0.14
Ipsos 2018-09-28 31 18 32 16 3 0.161
Leger 2018-09-27 30 19 32 17 2 0.226
Mainstreet 2018-09-27 29 19.5 31.5 16.3 3.7 0.078
Ipsos 2018-09-23 30 20 30 16 4 0.006
Research Co. 2018-09-22 30 19 32 16 3 0.002
Leger 2018-09-17 30 21 31 14 4 0.008
CROP 2018-09-17 37 16 30 14 3 0.073
Forum 2018-09-15 22 24 32 19 3 0.004
Mainstreet 2018-09-15 28.6 21.5 29.1 17.1 3.7 0.001
Leger 2018-09-10 29 21 35 11 4 0.007
Mainstreet 2018-09-07 27.3 21.1 32.2 15.7 3.7 0
Leger 2018-08-28 32 19 37 8 4 0.005
Forum 2018-08-23 22 21 42 13 2 0.003

Quebec riding-by-riding vote projection:

last updated: October 1, 2018 at 07:39 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Riding name: Notional
incumbent
Lib. PQ CAQ QS Other Projected
winner
 
Abitibi–Est LIB 31 24 27 16 3 LEANS LIB
Abitibi–Ouest PQ 25 35 22 15 3 PQ
Acadie LIB 61 7 16 14 2 LIB
Anjou–Louis-Riel LIB 41 16 25 16 2 LIB
Argenteuil LIB 30 24 33 11 2 LEANS CAQ
Arthabaska CAQ 18 11 56 13 2 CAQ
Beauce–Nord CAQ 24 3 62 8 2 CAQ
Beauce–Sud LIB 38 3 49 8 3 CAQ
Beauharnois PQ 20 30 32 15 3 LEANS CAQ
Bellechasse LIB 37 9 44 9 2 CAQ
Berthier PQ 11 31 40 15 3 CAQ
Bertrand PQ 18 29 36 16 2 CAQ
Blainville CAQ 20 21 44 14 1 CAQ
Bonaventure PQ 32 39 12 15 2 PQ
Borduas CAQ 12 24 43 18 2 CAQ
Bourassa–Sauve LIB 51 13 20 13 2 LIB
Bourget PQ 20 29 28 21 3 LEANS PQ
Brome–Missisquoi LIB 32 15 37 16 1 LEANS CAQ
Chambly CAQ 12 25 44 16 3 CAQ
Champlain LIB 23 23 40 13 1 CAQ
Chapleau LIB 45 13 24 14 3 LIB
Charlesbourg LIB 29 11 43 12 5 CAQ
Charleboix–Cote-de-Beaupre LIB 24 24 37 11 3 CAQ
Chateauguay LIB 40 16 29 13 2 LIB
Chauveau CAQ 17 7 64 10 3 CAQ
Chicoutimi PQ 19 28 26 15 12 LEANS PQ
Chomedey LIB 61 8 21 9 2 LIB
Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere CAQ 20 8 59 11 3 CAQ
Cote-du-Sud LIB 37 14 33 14 3 LEANS LIB
D’Arcy–McGee LIB 81 1 9 7 2 LIB
Deux-Montagnes CAQ 17 23 44 14 2 CAQ
Drummond–Bois-Francs CAQ 14 19 50 14 3 CAQ
Dubuc LIB 30 25 28 13 3 LEANS LIB
Duplessis PQ 28 34 21 15 3 LEANS PQ
Fabre LIB 43 16 27 14 1 LIB
Gaspe PQ 24 45 14 13 3 PQ
Gatineau LIB 48 13 23 15 1 LIB
Gouin QS 8 11 12 67 2 QS
Granby CAQ 9 15 63 11 2 CAQ
Groulx CAQ 21 22 41 14 2 CAQ
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve PQ 9 24 17 46 4 QS
Hull LIB 41 16 19 23 1 LIB
Huntingdon LIB 40 14 32 12 3 LIB
Iberville CAQ 16 23 44 16 1 CAQ
Iles-de-la-Madeleine LIB 46 35 5 13 2 LIB
Jacques-Cartier LIB 74 1 14 7 3 LIB
Jean-Lesage LIB 24 14 31 22 8 LEANS CAQ
Jean-Talon LIB 31 15 29 19 6 LEANS LIB
Jean-Mance–Viger LIB 69 5 16 9 2 LIB
Johnson CAQ 13 23 47 14 3 CAQ
Joliette PQ 11 35 37 16 2 LEANS CAQ
Jonquiere PQ 16 36 33 13 1 LEANS PQ
L’Assomption CAQ 5 21 60 13 1 CAQ
La Peltrie CAQ 20 5 62 9 4 CAQ
La Piniere LIB 47 9 31 10 3 LIB
La Prairie LIB 25 19 41 13 1 CAQ
Labelle PQ 17 36 30 17 1 LEANS PQ
Lac-Saint-Jean PQ 18 37 27 15 3 PQ
LaFontaine LIB 64 7 18 10 2 LIB
Laporte LIB 38 17 26 16 3 LIB
Laurier-Dorion LIB 33 9 13 42 3 QS
Laval-des-Rapides LIB 33 25 27 14 2 LEANS LIB
Laviolette-Saint-Maurice LIB 31 21 34 13 2 LEANS CAQ
Les Plaines 14 24 48 14 1 CAQ
Levis CAQ 22 11 51 14 2 CAQ
Lotbiniere-Frontenac LIB 36 11 40 10 2 LEANS CAQ
Louis-Hebert LIB 36 12 37 12 3 TOSS-UP
Marguerite-Bourgeoys LIB 61 9 18 10 2 LIB
Marie-Victorin PQ 17 29 28 22 4 TOSS-UP
Marquette LIB 53 9 21 13 4 LIB
Maskinonge LIB 28 19 38 14 2 CAQ
Masson CAQ 9 27 49 14 2 CAQ
Matane-Matapedia PQ 14 53 19 13 1 PQ
Maurice-Richard LIB 29 23 21 25 2 LEANS LIB
Megantic LIB 30 23 32 14 1 LEANS CAQ
Mercier QS 12 11 13 62 2 QS
Mille-Iles LIB 39 20 27 12 2 LIB
Mirabel CAQ 11 25 50 13 1 CAQ
Mont-Royal-Outremont LIB 56 5 15 20 3 LIB
Montarville CAQ 21 18 45 14 1 CAQ
Montmorency LIB 27 11 44 12 6 CAQ
Nelligan LIB 70 3 18 6 3 LIB
Nicolet-Becancour CAQ 17 15 48 17 4 CAQ
Notre-Dame-de-Grace LIB 65 3 13 15 5 LIB
Orford LIB 32 20 30 17 1 LEANS LIB
Papineau LIB 38 19 25 16 3 LIB
Pointe-aux-Trembles PQ 15 34 33 16 3 LEANS PQ
Pontiac LIB 62 5 17 15 1 LIB
Portneuf LIB 29 9 48 10 4 CAQ
Prevost 13 29 41 15 1 CAQ
Rene-Levesque PQ 13 47 24 15 1 PQ
Repentigny CAQ 14 24 47 14 1 CAQ
Richelieu PQ 16 32 36 13 4 LEANS CAQ
Richmond LIB 29 21 32 16 3 LEANS CAQ
Rimouski PQ 18 31 18 31 3 TOSS-UP
Riviere-du-Loup–Temiscouata LIB 39 18 26 15 2 LIB
Robert-Baldwin LIB 76 2 13 7 2 LIB
Roberval LIB 45 28 16 10 2 LIB
Rosemont PQ 20 25 21 31 3 LEANS QS
Rousseau PQ 9 30 46 14 1 CAQ
Rouyn-Noranda–Temiscamingue LIB 26 24 25 23 1 TOSS-UP
Saint-Francois LIB 27 25 26 18 4 TOSS-UP
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne LIB 42 15 19 20 4 LIB
Saint-Hyacinthe CAQ 17 22 43 16 2 CAQ
Saint-Jean PQ 17 25 41 15 2 CAQ
Saint-Jerome PQ 11 28 40 20 1 CAQ
Saint-Laurent LIB 69 4 11 12 4 LIB
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS 19 18 14 47 3 QS
Sainte-Rose LIB 30 21 34 14 1 LEANS CAQ
Sanguinet PQ 17 27 41 13 2 CAQ
Sherbrooke LIB 24 23 24 25 3 TOSS-UP
Soulanges LIB 41 21 16 18 4 LIB
Taillon PQ 20 25 32 21 1 LEANS CAQ
Taschereau PQ 17 22 24 28 10 LEANS QS
Terrebonne PQ 13 28 44 14 1 CAQ
Trois-Rivieres LIB 27 21 31 18 2 LEANS CAQ
Ungava LIB 36 28 21 11 4 LIB
Vachon PQ 23 25 34 15 2 CAQ
Vanier-Les Rivieres LIB 30 9 45 12 4 CAQ
Vaudreuil LIB 51 11 24 11 3 LIB
Vercheres PQ 9 34 40 16 1 LEANS CAQ
Verdun LIB 41 17 20 19 3 LIB
Viau LIB 52 10 16 20 3 LIB
Vimont LIB 39 18 28 12 3 LIB
Westmount–Saint-Louis LIB 67 3 14 12 4 LIB

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