Disclaimer:
CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown
last updated: September 23, 2018 at 08:12 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected election results in Quebec

Vote projections Seat projections
Liberal  Liberal logo 29.6%

 

48

 

Parti Québécois  Parti Québécois logo 20.5%

 

21

 

CAQ  CAQ logo 31.1%

 

50

 

Québec solidaire  QS logo 15.3%

 

6

 

Other / Autre  Other logo 3.5%

 

0

 

Trend line of all Quebec polls

last updated: September 23, 2018 at 08:12 (Eastern Daylight Time)

2018 Quebec election opinion polls:

last updated: September 23, 2018 at 08:12 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Polling Firm: Date: Source: Lib. PQ CAQ QS Other Poll weight:  
Leger 2018-09-17 30 21 31 14 4 0.377
CROP 2018-09-17 37 16 30 14 3 0.232
Forum 2018-09-15 22 24 32 19 3 0.236
Mainstreet 2018-09-15 28.6 21.5 29.1 17.1 3.7 0.095
Leger 2018-09-10 29 21 35 11 4 0.013
Mainstreet 2018-09-07 27.3 21.1 32.2 15.7 3.7 0.001
Leger 2018-08-28 32 19 37 8 4 0.009
Forum 2018-08-23 22 21 42 13 2 0.005
Ipsos 2018-08-21 29 18 36 11 6 0.021
Mainstreet 2018-08-20 25.6 17.7 32.1 13.9 10.7 0
CROP 2018-08-20 36 15 38 10 1 0.001
Leger 2018-08-14 30 18 36 10 6 0.008
Mainstreet 2018-07-29 29.7 16.5 32.3 11.7 9.8 0
CROP 2018-06-19 33 14 39 11 3 0
Leger 2018-06-10 28 19 37 9 7 0

Quebec riding-by-riding vote projection:

last updated: September 23, 2018 at 08:12 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Riding name: Notional
incumbent
Lib. PQ CAQ QS Other Projected
winner
 
Abitibi–Est LIB 30 25 27 15 3 LEANS LIB
Abitibi–Ouest PQ 23 38 22 13 4 PQ
Acadie LIB 60 7 17 14 3 LIB
Anjou–Louis-Riel LIB 40 18 25 15 2 LIB
Argenteuil LIB 28 26 32 11 3 LEANS CAQ
Arthabaska CAQ 18 12 55 12 3 CAQ
Beauce–Nord CAQ 25 2 61 8 3 CAQ
Beauce–Sud LIB 40 2 47 7 3 CAQ
Beauharnois PQ 17 34 31 14 5 LEANS PQ
Bellechasse LIB 39 9 42 8 2 LEANS CAQ
Berthier PQ 9 35 39 14 4 LEANS CAQ
Bertrand PQ 15 32 35 15 3 LEANS CAQ
Blainville CAQ 18 24 43 14 2 CAQ
Bonaventure PQ 30 41 12 14 3 PQ
Borduas CAQ 11 28 42 17 2 CAQ
Bourassa–Sauve LIB 50 14 20 13 3 LIB
Bourget PQ 17 32 27 20 4 LEANS PQ
Brome–Missisquoi LIB 33 15 36 14 1 LEANS CAQ
Chambly CAQ 10 27 43 15 4 CAQ
Champlain LIB 22 25 39 12 1 CAQ
Chapleau LIB 47 14 23 13 4 LIB
Charlesbourg LIB 31 13 41 10 4 CAQ
Charleboix–Cote-de-Beaupre LIB 25 28 35 10 3 LEANS CAQ
Chateauguay LIB 39 18 28 12 3 LIB
Chauveau CAQ 18 7 63 9 3 CAQ
Chicoutimi PQ 18 30 25 14 14 LEANS PQ
Chomedey LIB 63 7 19 8 3 LIB
Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere CAQ 21 8 57 11 3 CAQ
Cote-du-Sud LIB 39 14 31 12 3 LIB
D’Arcy–McGee LIB 80 0 10 7 3 LIB
Deux-Montagnes CAQ 14 26 43 14 3 CAQ
Drummond–Bois-Francs CAQ 13 21 49 13 3 CAQ
Dubuc LIB 30 27 27 12 4 LEANS LIB
Duplessis PQ 26 35 21 14 3 PQ
Fabre LIB 44 16 26 13 1 LIB
Gaspe PQ 22 48 14 12 4 PQ
Gatineau LIB 51 13 22 13 2 LIB
Gouin QS 5 12 13 66 3 QS
Granby CAQ 8 17 63 11 2 CAQ
Groulx CAQ 19 24 40 14 3 CAQ
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve PQ 6 27 18 44 6 QS
Hull LIB 43 16 18 21 2 LIB
Huntingdon LIB 38 15 32 12 4 LIB
Iberville CAQ 15 26 43 15 2 CAQ
Iles-de-la-Madeleine LIB 39 35 12 13 2 LEANS LIB
Jacques-Cartier LIB 74 0 14 7 5 LIB
Jean-Lesage LIB 26 17 31 19 7 LEANS CAQ
Jean-Talon LIB 33 17 29 16 5 LEANS LIB
Jean-Mance–Viger LIB 69 4 16 9 2 LIB
Johnson CAQ 12 26 45 14 4 CAQ
Joliette PQ 8 39 35 15 3 LEANS PQ
Jonquiere PQ 15 39 32 12 2 PQ
L’Assomption CAQ 2 25 59 12 2 CAQ
La Peltrie CAQ 22 5 60 8 4 CAQ
La Piniere LIB 44 0 19 9 29 LIB
La Prairie LIB 23 21 41 13 2 CAQ
Labelle PQ 14 40 29 16 2 PQ
Lac-Saint-Jean PQ 16 40 26 14 4 PQ
LaFontaine LIB 63 6 19 10 2 LIB
Laporte LIB 37 19 26 15 4 LIB
Laurier-Dorion LIB 32 10 14 41 4 QS
Laval-des-Rapides LIB 33 26 25 13 3 LEANS LIB
Laviolette-Saint-Maurice LIB 32 22 32 12 2 TOSS-UP
Les Plaines 11 27 46 13 2 CAQ
Levis CAQ 23 12 49 13 3 CAQ
Lotbiniere-Frontenac LIB 38 11 38 10 3 TOSS-UP
Louis-Hebert LIB 39 13 35 11 3 LEANS LIB
Marguerite-Bourgeoys LIB 60 9 18 10 3 LIB
Marie-Victorin PQ 14 32 28 21 5 LEANS PQ
Marquette LIB 52 9 21 13 5 LIB
Maskinonge LIB 28 20 36 13 2 CAQ
Masson CAQ 6 31 48 13 3 CAQ
Matane-Matapedia PQ 11 57 18 12 2 PQ
Maurice-Richard LIB 27 25 21 24 3 LEANS LIB
Megantic LIB 30 25 31 13 2 LEANS CAQ
Mercier QS 10 13 13 62 2 QS
Mille-Iles LIB 40 21 26 11 3 LIB
Mirabel CAQ 8 28 49 13 2 CAQ
Mont-Royal-Outremont LIB 57 5 15 19 4 LIB
Montarville CAQ 20 21 44 14 2 CAQ
Montmorency LIB 29 12 42 10 6 CAQ
Nelligan LIB 72 2 18 3 5 LIB
Nicolet-Becancour CAQ 16 17 47 16 4 CAQ
Notre-Dame-de-Grace LIB 65 1 13 15 6 LIB
Orford LIB 33 21 29 16 2 LEANS LIB
Papineau LIB 39 20 24 14 3 LIB
Pointe-aux-Trembles PQ 11 38 32 15 4 LEANS PQ
Pontiac LIB 64 4 17 14 1 LIB
Portneuf LIB 31 10 47 9 3 CAQ
Prevost 11 33 40 14 2 LEANS CAQ
Rene-Levesque PQ 10 50 24 14 2 PQ
Repentigny CAQ 11 28 45 14 2 CAQ
Richelieu PQ 14 35 35 12 4 TOSS-UP
Richmond LIB 30 22 30 14 3 TOSS-UP
Rimouski PQ 17 34 18 28 3 LEANS PQ
Riviere-du-Loup–Temiscouata LIB 41 19 25 13 3 LIB
Robert-Baldwin LIB 77 0 13 7 3 LIB
Roberval LIB 45 29 15 9 2 LIB
Rosemont PQ 18 28 21 30 4 LEANS QS
Rousseau PQ 6 34 45 13 2 CAQ
Rouyn-Noranda–Temiscamingue LIB 26 26 25 21 2 TOSS-UP
Saint-Francois LIB 27 27 25 16 4 TOSS-UP
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne LIB 41 16 19 19 5 LIB
Saint-Hyacinthe CAQ 17 24 42 15 3 CAQ
Saint-Jean PQ 17 28 39 14 2 CAQ
Saint-Jerome PQ 9 31 39 20 2 CAQ
Saint-Laurent LIB 72 3 6 12 6 LIB
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS 17 19 15 45 4 QS
Sainte-Rose LIB 31 22 32 13 1 LEANS CAQ
Sanguinet PQ 14 30 40 13 3 CAQ
Sherbrooke LIB 24 25 24 23 4 TOSS-UP
Soulanges LIB 44 26 6 18 6 LIB
Taillon PQ 18 28 32 20 2 LEANS CAQ
Taschereau PQ 18 26 24 23 9 LEANS PQ
Terrebonne PQ 11 31 42 13 2 CAQ
Trois-Rivieres LIB 28 23 30 17 3 LEANS CAQ
Ungava LIB 31 28 25 11 5 LEANS LIB
Vachon PQ 21 28 33 15 3 LEANS CAQ
Vanier-Les Rivieres LIB 33 10 43 10 4 CAQ
Vaudreuil LIB 51 11 24 11 4 LIB
Vercheres PQ 7 38 38 15 2 TOSS-UP
Verdun LIB 39 19 20 18 4 LIB
Viau LIB 50 9 17 19 4 LIB
Vimont LIB 40 19 27 11 3 LIB
Westmount–Saint-Louis LIB 73 2 6 13 6 LIB

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