Disclaimer:
CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown
last updated: June 7, 2018 at 06:30 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected election results in Ontario

Vote projections Seat projections
Liberal  Liberal logo 19.5%

 

8

 

PC  Conservative logo 38.4%

 

71

 

New Democrat  New Democrat logo 36.1%

 

44

 

Green  Green logo 4.6%

 

1

 

Other  Other logo 1.5%

 

0

 

Trend line of all Ontario polls published since July, 2017

last updated: June 7, 2018 at 06:30 (Eastern Daylight Time)

2018 Ontario election opinion polls:

last updated: June 7, 2018 at 06:30 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Polling Firm: Date: Source: Lib. PC NDP Green Other Poll weight:  
Forum 2018-06-06 21 39 34 5 1 0.156
Research Co 2018-06-06 19.8 38.8 36.8 3.8 0.8 0.067
Ekos 2018-06-06 18.9 39.1 35.1 4.5 2.4 0.106
Pollara 2018-06-05 16.8 37.8 37.8 5.8 1.8 0.052
Ipsos Reid 2018-06-05 19 39 36 0 6 0.106
Leger 2018-06-04 18 39 38 0 5 0.144
Pollara 2018-06-04 17 39 37 6 1 0.02
Mainstreet 2018-06-04 20.2 39 34.3 4.9 1.6 0.045
Pollara 2018-06-03 19.8 37.8 36.8 4.8 0.8 0.012
Pollara 2018-06-02 20 37 37 5 1 0.007
Forum 2018-06-02 18 38 37 5 2 0.01
Abacus 2018-06-02 23 33 37 5 2 0.088
Ekos 2018-05-31 19.3 38.6 34.9 5.9 1.3 0.003
Research Co 2018-05-31 18 38 39 4 1 0.003
Forum 2018-05-29 19 39 35 5 2 0.004
HK Strategies 2018-05-29 18.75 36.75 38.75 5.75 0 0.013
Ekos 2018-05-29 19.1 37.9 38.4 3.3 1.3 0.002
Angus Reid 2018-05-29 17 37 39 5 2 0.1
Innovative 2018-05-29 21.2 34.2 37.2 6.2 1.2 0.045
Innovative 2018-05-29 22 34 36 6 2 0.002
Pollara 2018-05-28 17 32 43 6 2 0.001
Mainstreet 2018-05-27 16 37.9 39.3 4.5 2.3 0.001
Ipsos Reid 2018-05-27 22 37 34 5 2 0.002
Abacus 2018-05-26 23.2 33.2 37.2 4.2 2.2 0.002
Ekos 2018-05-24 20.4 34.9 35.6 7 2.1 0.001
Forum 2018-05-23 14 33 47 4 2 0.002
Innovative 2018-05-23 26 36 31 6 1 0.001
Leger 2018-05-22 21 37 37 5 0 0.005
Pollara 2018-05-22 18 37 38 5 2 0
Ipsos Reid 2018-05-21 23 36 37 4 0 0.002

Ontario riding-by-riding vote projection:

last updated: June 7, 2018 at 06:30 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Riding name: Notional
incumbent
Lib. PC NDP Green Other Projected
winner
 
Ajax LIB 18 49 29 4 1 PC
AlgomaManitoulin NDP 13 29 53 3 2 NDP
AuroraOak RidgesRichmond Hill 26 44 27 1 2 PC
BarrieInnisfil LIB 12 53 29 6 0 PC
BarrieSpringwaterOro-Medonte 17 50 24 5 4 PC
Bay of Quinte PC 25 46 23 5 0 PC
BeachesEast York LIB 28 24 43 4 1 NDP
Brampton Centre 25 40 33 1 1 PC
Brampton East 19 33 44 3 1 NDP
Brampton North LIB 15 38 41 2 2 LEANS NDP
Brampton South 22 45 27 3 3 PC
Brampton West LIB 21 38 35 2 4 LEANS PC
BrantfordBrant LIB 17 33 47 3 1 NDP
BruceGreyOwen Sound PC 13 48 29 10 1 PC
Burlington LIB 18 42 34 4 1 PC
Cambridge LIB 25 30 37 7 1 NDP
Carleton 13 60 20 6 0 PC
Chatham-KentLeamington PC 10 38 48 3 1 NDP
Davenport LIB 15 27 54 4 1 NDP
Don Valley East LIB 33 32 31 3 1 LEANS LIB
Don Valley North 36 38 20 3 3 LEANS PC
Don Valley West LIB 40 39 19 2 1 TOSS-UP
DufferinCaledon PC 15 44 29 12 1 PC
Durham LIB 18 44 34 4 1 PC
EglintonLawrence LIB 35 39 23 3 1 LEANS PC
ElginMiddlesexLondon PC 11 60 21 6 2 PC
Essex NDP 7 34 56 3 0 NDP
Etobicoke Centre LIB 31 39 28 1 1 PC
Etobicoke North LIB 22 47 28 2 1 PC
EtobicokeLakeshore LIB 20 40 36 4 1 LEANS PC
FlamboroughGlanbrook 17 42 33 7 3 PC
GlengarryPrescottRussell LIB 37 46 11 3 2 PC
Guelph LIB 16 26 27 30 1 LEANS GRN
HaldimandNorfolk PC 7 55 32 5 0 PC
HaliburtonKawartha LakesBrock PC 12 45 38 5 0 PC
Hamilton Centre NDP 13 13 62 10 2 NDP
Hamilton EastStoney Creek NDP 15 30 48 4 3 NDP
Hamilton Mountain NDP 13 20 64 2 1 NDP
Hamilton WestAncasterDundas LIB 17 35 41 6 1 NDP
HastingsLennox and Addington 10 53 31 6 0 PC
Humber RiverBlack Creek LIB 36 29 31 3 1 LEANS LIB
HuronBruce PC 14 52 26 3 4 PC
KanataCarleton OTH 14 41 32 5 8 PC
KenoraRainy River NDP 7 41 47 5 1 NDP
Kiiwetinoong 7 20 64 8 1 NDP
Kingston and the Islands LIB 27 24 39 9 1 NDP
KingVaughan 32 45 19 1 2 PC
Kitchener Centre LIB 26 31 38 4 1 NDP
Kitchener SouthHespeler 13 43 35 8 1 PC
KitchenerConestoga PC 11 40 39 8 3 TOSS-UP
LambtonKentMiddlesex PC 12 39 40 5 4 LEANS NDP
LanarkFrontenacKingston PC 13 57 25 6 0 PC
LeedsGrenvilleThousand Islands and Rideau Lakes PC 8 54 34 3 1 PC
London North Centre LIB 15 33 43 7 1 NDP
London West NDP 7 30 57 4 2 NDP
LondonFanshawe NDP 11 20 62 4 3 NDP
MarkhamStouffville LIB 30 48 18 3 1 PC
MarkhamThornhill 30 41 27 2 1 PC
MarkhamUnionville LIB 19 51 25 4 1 PC
Milton LIB 19 44 32 3 2 PC
Mississauga Centre 37 33 25 3 2 LIB
Mississauga EastCooksville LIB 30 44 21 3 3 PC
MississaugaErin Mills LIB 29 40 28 1 2 PC
MississaugaLakeshore LIB 26 47 22 3 1 PC
MississaugaMalton LIB 22 43 30 3 3 PC
MississaugaStreetsville LIB 26 37 27 8 2 PC
MushkegowukJames Bay 14 31 45 10 0 NDP
Nepean PC 15 49 32 3 1 PC
NewmarketAurora LIB 22 49 23 4 2 PC
Niagara Centre NDP 4 30 61 3 2 NDP
Niagara Falls NDP 9 34 50 4 2 NDP
Niagara West PC 12 55 26 5 2 PC
Nickel Belt NDP 9 14 75 2 0 NDP
Nipissing PC 10 47 37 4 1 PC
NorthumberlandPeterborough South LIB 19 38 38 4 0 TOSS-UP
Oakville LIB 38 37 20 4 1 LEANS LIB
Oakville NorthBurlington 27 54 15 3 1 PC
Orlans LIB 28 42 26 3 1 PC
Oshawa NDP 8 36 52 3 0 NDP
Ottawa Centre LIB 20 24 43 10 3 NDP
Ottawa South LIB 28 36 28 6 2 PC
Ottawa WestNepean LIB 26 34 32 6 2 LEANS PC
OttawaVanier LIB 36 29 27 5 2 LIB
Oxford PC 8 50 35 5 1 PC
ParkdaleHigh Park 17 15 63 5 1 NDP
Parry SoundMuskoka PC 15 34 26 24 1 PC
PerthWellington PC 15 53 23 4 5 PC
PeterboroughKawartha LIB 22 34 40 3 1 NDP
PickeringUxbridge LIB 21 42 33 3 1 PC
RenfrewNipissingPembroke PC 6 58 30 3 2 PC
Richmond Hill LIB 31 38 26 3 2 PC
SarniaLambton PC 8 48 40 4 1 PC
Sault Ste. Marie PC 22 43 32 2 0 PC
Scarborough Centre LIB 32 28 37 3 0 LEANS NDP
Scarborough North PC 24 39 34 2 1 LEANS PC
Scarborough Southwest LIB 14 39 42 4 1 LEANS NDP
ScarboroughAgincourt LIB 31 47 20 1 1 PC
ScarboroughGuildwood LIB 31 34 33 1 1 TOSS-UP
ScarboroughRouge Park 16 42 41 1 0 LEANS PC
Simcoe North OTH 11 47 33 9 0 PC
SimcoeGrey PC 19 42 29 10 0 PC
SpadinaFort York LIB 37 23 37 2 1 TOSS-UP
St. Catharines LIB 20 33 43 3 1 NDP
StormontDundasSouth Glengarry PC 9 55 32 3 1 PC
Sudbury LIB 15 27 53 4 1 NDP
Thornhill PC 33 43 20 2 2 PC
Thunder BayAtikokan LIB 39 20 35 3 3 LEANS LIB
Thunder BaySuperior North LIB 33 21 40 2 4 NDP
TimiskamingCochrane NDP 9 22 65 2 2 NDP
Timmins NDP 8 22 65 5 0 NDP
Toronto Centre 17 25 52 4 2 NDP
TorontoDanforth NDP 25 19 50 4 2 NDP
TorontoSt. Paul’s LIB 34 31 32 3 1 LEANS LIB
UniversityRosedale 26 28 39 6 1 NDP
VaughanWoodbridge LIB 26 38 32 2 3 PC
Waterloo NDP 17 23 53 6 1 NDP
WellingtonHalton Hills PC 14 61 17 5 2 PC
Whitby PC 15 49 33 2 0 PC
Willowdale LIB 24 41 31 4 0 PC
Windsor West NDP 13 18 63 3 3 NDP
WindsorTecumseh NDP 9 13 70 6 2 NDP
York Centre LIB 31 43 23 2 1 PC
York SouthWeston LIB 29 13 56 1 1 NDP
YorkSimcoe PC 12 47 36 4 0 PC

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