Disclaimer:

CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

 

Projected nationwide election results

last updated: October 19, 2015 at 6:26 am (Eastern Daylight Time)

national vote projections national seat projections
Conservative  Conservative logo 30.8%

 

114

 

New Democrat  New Democrat logo 21.8%

 

69

 

Liberal  Liberal logo 37.3%

 

146

 

Bloc Québécois  Bloc Québécois logo 5%

 

8

 

Green  Green logo 4.3%

 

1

 

Other  Other logo 0.9%

 

0

 

Trend line of all national polls published

last updated: October 19, 2015 at 6:26 am (Eastern Daylight Time)

Average regional breakdown of all published polls

last updated: October 19, 2015 at 6:26 am (Eastern Daylight Time)

NOTE: for in-depth regional and provincial data, see “Regional projections & riding-level data” section.

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown
last updated: October 19, 2015 at 6:26 am (Eastern Daylight Time)

All 2015 Canadian federal election opinion polls:

last updated: October 19, 2015 at 6:26 am (Eastern Daylight Time)

Polling Firm: Date: Source: Con. NDP Lib. Bloc Green Other Poll weight:  
Nanos 2015-10-18 30.5 19.7 39.1 5.5 4.6 0.6 0.133
Forum 2015-10-18 30 20 40 6 3 1 0.14
Ekos 2015-10-18 31.9 20.4 35.8 4.9 5.6 1.4 0.096
Ipsos-Reid 2015-10-17 31 22 38 4 4 1 0.101
Ekos 2015-10-17 32.6 21 34.3 5.4 5.4 1.3 0.027
Nanos 2015-10-17 30.5 22.1 37.3 4.6 4.7 0.8 0.029
Ekos 2015-10-16 33.3 21.9 33.7 4.7 4.1 2.3 0.017
Nanos 2015-10-16 30.7 22.6 37 4.4 4.7 0.6 0.018
Leger 2015-10-16 30 22 38 6 4 0 0.143
Angus-Reid 2015-10-16 31 22 35 5 5 2 0.12
Mainstreet 2015-10-15 32.7 20.8 37.6 4 5 0 0.043
Ekos 2015-10-15 32.8 22.7 34 3.4 5.1 2 0.01
Nanos 2015-10-15 30.6 23.5 36.5 4.3 4.7 0.4 0.012
Forum 2015-10-14 31 24 37 6 2 1 0.009
Ekos 2015-10-14 32.6 22.9 33.5 3.4 5.6 2 0.007
Nanos 2015-10-14 29.4 23.7 37.1 5 4.3 0.5 0.008
Nanos 2015-10-13 29.2 24.5 36.1 5.2 4.3 0.7 0.006
Ekos 2015-10-13 29.9 24.1 34.1 3.8 6.4 1.7 0.004
Ipsos-Reid 2015-10-13 31 24 37 5 2 1 0.005
Ekos 2015-10-12 31.1 20.6 35.6 3.2 7.5 2 0.003
Innovative 2015-10-11 30 22 38 3 6 1 0.046
Nanos 2015-10-11 28.9 24.3 35.7 5.7 4.8 0.6 0.004
Ekos 2015-10-10 35.5 19 33.1 3.3 7.4 1.7 0.001
Nanos 2015-10-10 29 25 35.1 5.2 5.1 0.6 0.003
Forum 2015-10-09 31 23 37 5 3 1 0.004
Nanos 2015-10-09 28.6 24.9 34.8 5.5 5.4 0.8 0.003
Angus-Reid 2015-10-09 33 25 31 6 3 2 0.003
Ekos 2015-10-08 33.7 20.4 33.8 3.5 7.2 1.4 0.001
Innovative 2015-10-08 30 24 35 5 5 1 0.001
Nanos 2015-10-08 31 25 34 5.3 4.2 0.5 0.003


Regional projections & riding-level data

2 Comments

  1. Kerry Kilbride

    NDP – No Doubt Paul. Great work on the website!!

  2. This is a great tool for voters in tightly fought ridings, frankly it is great for anyone. Perfect.

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